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Post by henrycpa on Jul 24, 2023 19:09:08 GMT -5
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Post by tomandrobin on Jul 25, 2023 8:59:09 GMT -5
Pay Wall......
How about another source or some copy & pasting?
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Post by henrycpa on Jul 25, 2023 10:07:55 GMT -5
Pay Wall......
How about another source or some copy & pasting?
I'm looking now. It was WSJ I think. I do not pay for WSJ so not sure how I got it. |
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Post by fuzzylogic on Jul 25, 2023 10:40:46 GMT -5
What were the cliff notes?
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Post by henrycpa on Jul 25, 2023 11:19:17 GMT -5
Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) shares fell more than 1% in pre-market trading on Tuesday as investment firm Atlantic Equities downgraded the media giant on worries over linear TV advertising and direct-to-consumer subscriber growth.
Analyst Hamilton Faber, who cut his rating on Walt Disney (DIS) shares to underweight from neutral and cut his per-share price target to $76 from $113, said it's possible that advertising pricing coming out of the current upfront could fall as much as 5%.
"With linear TV ratings continuing to decline fast across general entertainment, and without the usual price gains that have been seen over the past 15 years, it is clear advertising is set to fall far faster than we have seen previously," Faber wrote in an investor note.
Most "quality" scripted productions are now on streaming platforms, leaving linear TV with unscripted content, though the "relatively resilient" pricing for sports should help temper declines, Faber added.
In addition, Disney's (DIS) key franchises - Marvel, Star Wars and Pixar - have been "disappointing" when looking at critics and audience scores, box office performance and TV series ratings data.
Concerning Marvel, Faber said early indications are not "encouraging" that the company can build to another Avengers climax, similar to 2019's Avengers: Endgame. Both Star Wars and Marvel are seeing declining viewing and critics scores (pointing to the Rotten Tomatoes score for Secret Invasion).
He added that Pixar's critical reviews have held up better, but consumers are now trained to wait six months to see the movies on Disney+, as evidenced by the last three global box office performances - Turning Red, Lightyear and Elemental - which have been among the lowest for the studio.
Faber also lowered expectations for Disney+ subscriber growth (to 4M, down from 8 to 10M) and now expects the service to reach break-even in 2026, longer than the 2024 the company has stated publicly.
Analysts are largely bullish on Walt Disney (DIS). It has a BUY rating from Seeking Alpha authors, while Wall Street analysts rate it a BUY. Conversely, Seeking Alpha's quant system, which consistently beats the market, rates DIS a HOLD.
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Post by tomandrobin on Jul 25, 2023 12:49:52 GMT -5
Analyst Hamilton Faber, who cut his rating on Walt Disney (DIS) shares to underweight from neutral and cut his per-share price target to $76 from $113, said it's possible that advertising pricing coming out of the current upfront could fall as much as 5%. In addition, Disney's (DIS) key franchises - Marvel, Star Wars and Pixar - have been "disappointing" when looking at critics and audience scores, box office performance and TV series ratings data. Concerning Marvel, Faber said early indications are not "encouraging" that the company can build to another Avengers climax, similar to 2019's Avengers: Endgame. Both Star Wars and Marvel are seeing declining viewing and critics scores (pointing to the Rotten Tomatoes score for Secret Invasion). He added that Pixar's critical reviews have held up better, but consumers are now trained to wait six months to see the movies on Disney+, as evidenced by the last three global box office performances - Turning Red, Lightyear and Elemental - which have been among the lowest for the studio. Faber also lowered expectations for Disney+ subscriber growth (to 4M, down from 8 to 10M) and now expects the service to reach break-even in 2026, longer than the 2024 the company has stated publicly. Analysts are largely bullish on Walt Disney (DIS). It has a BUY rating from Seeking Alpha authors, while Wall Street analysts rate it a BUY. Conversely, Seeking Alpha's quant system, which consistently beats the market, rates DIS a HOLD. I cut some fat out of what you posted......
I am thinking that Disney stock is going to hit the 70's soon.
Marvel, Star Wars and Pixar is all on Disney.
Star Wars.....Disney screwed up several ways. 1) They didn't embrace the Star Wars that everyone fell in love with. Instead, they did the opposite.....killed off the "Stars" of the original, took the franchise in a different direction (wrong direction) and changed how everyone "thought" it should be. The only successful stuff are the continuation stories off the main trilogy. Also, Star Wars leadership is suspect....wong hiring, wrong direction cces for the brand.
Marvel.....Was strong for the first 10 years, then Disney stopped making movies with great stories to making movies to fill agendas and quotas. They chased off their top directors, producers, etc and replaced with less than talent.
Pixar.....This is the famed Animation house is the worse. Disney destroyed Pixar by chasing out its top people. To say their replacements have been dismal is an understatement.
This graph tells the story.....
And here is where Pixar went from King of the Mountain, to the bottom of the trash heap. This article from 2018 got it wrong, like Disney.
Disney + has been a money sucking hole. Last quarter the loss was around $650m I think, Disney was touting that as an achievement. That is still a $2.6B pace for a year. The costs have been staggering and profitability is not happening anytime soon. Moving the projected profitability date to 2026, only means Billions of more losses. So Disney+ might end up costing Disney $20B before it starts breaking even in quarterly operating profits. How much longer after that will it take Disney to make back the $20Billion in development losses?
I think that Disney is a buy long term, but not short term. Iger has a lot of moves to make, bills to pay, houses to clear before money starts going in the right direction.
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Post by Brian5581 on Jul 25, 2023 13:11:25 GMT -5
Yep. Can't disagree.
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Post by henrycpa on Jul 25, 2023 14:32:59 GMT -5
I cannot find another article from Forbes yesterday that provides so much technical detail. Basically, for Disney to perform at a 10% return, which is what is projected for its market sector competitors, they need Streaming to hit big mulitples that are just not possible in the next 10 years. Will it have a return, yes it will at about a 6%-7% rate but that is risky compared to other options. I want to say the name of the article was "Disney Fans not happy with this ride" but it was about the stock valuation ride. It was very well written and looked at all of Disney's market sectors, past invesments and why things are where they are. It was not bearish but also not bullish. I just cannot find it today! Analyst Hamilton Faber, who cut his rating on Walt Disney (DIS) shares to underweight from neutral and cut his per-share price target to $76 from $113, said it's possible that advertising pricing coming out of the current upfront could fall as much as 5%. In addition, Disney's (DIS) key franchises - Marvel, Star Wars and Pixar - have been "disappointing" when looking at critics and audience scores, box office performance and TV series ratings data. Concerning Marvel, Faber said early indications are not "encouraging" that the company can build to another Avengers climax, similar to 2019's Avengers: Endgame. Both Star Wars and Marvel are seeing declining viewing and critics scores (pointing to the Rotten Tomatoes score for Secret Invasion). He added that Pixar's critical reviews have held up better, but consumers are now trained to wait six months to see the movies on Disney+, as evidenced by the last three global box office performances - Turning Red, Lightyear and Elemental - which have been among the lowest for the studio. Faber also lowered expectations for Disney+ subscriber growth (to 4M, down from 8 to 10M) and now expects the service to reach break-even in 2026, longer than the 2024 the company has stated publicly. Analysts are largely bullish on Walt Disney (DIS). It has a BUY rating from Seeking Alpha authors, while Wall Street analysts rate it a BUY. Conversely, Seeking Alpha's quant system, which consistently beats the market, rates DIS a HOLD. I cut some fat out of what you posted......
I am thinking that Disney stock is going to hit the 70's soon.
Marvel, Star Wars and Pixar is all on Disney.
Star Wars.....Disney screwed up several ways. 1) They didn't embrace the Star Wars that everyone fell in love with. Instead, they did the opposite.....killed off the "Stars" of the original, took the franchise in a different direction (wrong direction) and changed how everyone "thought" it should be. The only successful stuff are the continuation stories off the main trilogy. Also, Star Wars leadership is suspect....wong hiring, wrong direction cces for the brand.
Marvel.....Was strong for the first 10 years, then Disney stopped making movies with great stories to making movies to fill agendas and quotas. They chased off their top directors, producers, etc and replaced with less than talent.
Pixar.....This is the famed Animation house is the worse. Disney destroyed Pixar by chasing out its top people. To say their replacements have been dismal is an understatement.
This graph tells the story.....
And here is where Pixar went from King of the Mountain, to the bottom of the trash heap. This article from 2018 got it wrong, like Disney.
Disney + has been a money sucking hole. Last quarter the loss was around $650m I think, Disney was touting that as an achievement. That is still a $2.6B pace for a year. The costs have been staggering and profitability is not happening anytime soon. Moving the projected profitability date to 2026, only means Billions of more losses. So Disney+ might end up costing Disney $20B before it starts breaking even in quarterly operating profits. How much longer after that will it take Disney to make back the $20Billion in development losses?
I think that Disney is a buy long term, but not short term. Iger has a lot of moves to make, bills to pay, houses to clear before money starts going in the right direction.
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Post by fuzzylogic on Jul 25, 2023 15:06:56 GMT -5
The chart is misleading since Onward was a casualty of Covid, and everything after that did not recover since you could just wait for them on D+. Disney put out some questionable content in there too, some of which was not embraced by other countries. Despite the terrible performance of 2020 - current movies, Disney is by like a 4x margin #1 worldwide.
Among the top 20 films of the year, Disney owns 5 of them: GOTG3, Little Mermaid, Quantumania, Elemental with $188M and Dial of Destiny with $131M. I'm all for stats showing that Disney sucks, but -- everyone else is sucking, much much worse. When the #12 movie of the year is $188M, it clearly shows that movie-going never took off again post-Covid.
For those saying Disney screwed up Marvel, Star Wars... let's not forget Star Wars holds 2 of the top 20 all-time slots and Marvel holds 5. That's 7 of the World's top 20 movies for being "screwed-up" LOL. Add in Frozen, Avatar, and Lion King, and Disney holds 12 of the world's top 20 movies, including all of the top 3. Killed off the stars of the original? They're just old and sadly passing naturally. Disney did the right thing in introducing new characters that our kids and future kids will love. Maybe some people wanted this to be about Han and Luke forever but it's time to retire your brick phone. As perhaps the world's biggest Star Wars fan, I could watch Force Awakens and Rogue One endless times. So many girls dressed as Rey over the years, a demographic Lucasfilm notoriously missed.
Does it drop off after that? Well, of movies 21 to 40 Disney owns 10. And 5 of those are Star Wars and Marvel.
I do think the stock will linger around its current price for the time being, but long term (imo) DIS is a buy*. Iger signing on for 2 more years is great, the key is who will steer the ship next.
* Not financial advice
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Post by tomandrobin on Jul 25, 2023 15:19:59 GMT -5
Disney stock ended at $85.56 today.
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Post by tomandrobin on Jul 25, 2023 15:51:30 GMT -5
The chart is misleading since Onward was a casualty of Covid, and everything after that did not recover since you could just wait for them on D+. Disney put out some questionable content in there too, some of which was not embraced by other countries. Despite the terrible performance of 2020 - current movies, Disney is by like a 4x margin #1 worldwide. Among the top 20 films of the year, Disney owns 5 of them: GOTG3, Little Mermaid, Quantumania, Elemental with $188M and Dial of Destiny with $131M. I'm all for stats showing that Disney sucks, but -- everyone else is sucking, much much worse. When the #12 movie of the year is $188M, it clearly shows that movie-going never took off again post-Covid. For those saying Disney "screwed up" Marvel, Star Wars... let's not forget Star Wars holds 2 of the top 20 all-time slots and Marvel holds 5. That's 7 of the World's top 20 movies for being "screwed-up" LOL. Add in Frozen, Avatar, and Lion King, and Disney holds 12 of the world's top 20 movies, including all of the top 3. Killed off the stars of the original? They're just old and sadly passing naturally. Disney did the right thing in introducing new characters that our kids and future kids will love. Maybe some people wanted this to be about Han and Luke forever but it's time to retire your brick phone. As perhaps the world's biggest Star Wars fan, I could watch Force Awakens and Rogue One endless times. So many girls dressed as Rey over the years, a demographic Lucasfilm notoriously missed. Does it drop off after that? Well, of movies 21 to 40 Disney owns 10. And 5 of those are Star Wars and Marvel. I do think the stock will linger around its current price for the time being, but long term (imo) DIS is a buy. Iger signing on for 2 more years is great, the key is who will steer the ship next. The chart is not misleading, but I will agree that Onward should have an asterisk.
Yes they own 5 of the top 20, but only one of them has made money. You can't spend $200m-$300m on a movie and not make 2.5 times production cost. Its not the "gross" income but the net income that counts.
What I wrote is that for Marvel, all was well until after End Game. After that movie, that Division has fallen apart. Similar thing happened to Star Wars. Started off with a bang, then quickly unraveled. They went from over $2B for episode 7 to barely over $1B at episode 9. Episode 9 should have been a $2B homerun. Remember that for the Solo Movie they had to bring in Ron Howard to fix the movie? As for the other Star Wars things you mention.....Rogue One is my favorite Star Wars movie, Rey is a nice addition to the Star Wars story (but things aren't just right), yes Luke et al had to die eventually the writers in the last three movies did a terrible job with their respective characters - especially if you had previously read the books. As mentioned above, the movies took a wrong turn. The Disney+ stuff is where they got things right.....why, because it went back to the original story lines.
You confusing and mixing past performance with present performance of the different Disney brands. Just as you mentioned that Disney holds some of the all time top spots, those are from the past. Avatar is not owned by Disney, it only holds the distribution rights. The IP is still held by Cameron. What you didn't mention is that Disney also owns the biggest box office flops and losses the past couple of years. Their last billion dollar movie was End Game in 2019.
I am no longer an Iger fan. His moment in time has passed. All these things happening now are because of him and his decisions. A lot of stuff now is because of decisions, policies and people Iger put in place before Chapek. And lets not forget Chapek was also Iger's choice. Iger built up Disney and he is also currently tearing it down.
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Post by brp on Jul 25, 2023 20:54:12 GMT -5
I do think the stock will linger around its current price for the time being, but long term (imo) DIS is a buy*. Iger signing on for 2 more years is great, the key is who will steer the ship next. Very good analysis putting some reality into the doom and gloom. And definitely agree on the Iger part as well. Great move for Disney's recovery!
Cheers.
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Post by jflatto on Jul 26, 2023 7:04:51 GMT -5
Keep in mind that very few movies or TV shows (lumping streaming in there) actually make a profit. Hollywood account makes mob accounting look honest.  Heck, Hollywood may even make US government accounting look honest.  Thus, I am always leery when Hollywood shares their results. A glut of streaming which tends to mean that shows never get a chance to have any legs. Think of some of the classic television shows that were given an opportunity to be renewed even without the best ratings versus so many (1 season and done) streaming shows as well as the glut of reality television. Why should I care about keeping up with the Kardashians. Actually why the "blank" would I care about individuals who contribute nothing to society and other than self-promotion seem to have no skills. |
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Post by DougUSMC on Jul 26, 2023 7:15:17 GMT -5
Am I the only one daft enough to read all of this as:
Bummer for my current stock, but think it's about time to buy again?
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Post by tomandrobin on Jul 26, 2023 7:49:23 GMT -5
Am I the only one daft enough to read all of this as: Bummer for my current stock, but think it's about time to buy again? No, you are not alone in your thinking.
I think the bottom for Disney is in the 70's. I also don't see a big upside until Disney can start clearing its debt, get better "net" flows and restart the dividend.
I do not see profitability for their streaming anytime soon. That 2026 number will get pushed again and again.
The Comcast deal is going to be messy.
Sale of Disney units is coming, but which units? and is that really a good thing?
Disney needs to pull out of the political discussions....good or bad. Disney needs to be a brand for all, being political limits Disney's bottom line. Being in the news because of political fighting and lawsuits reflects negativity on the overall product. Its favorable rating has been falling the last two years and is projected to continue next year. This is not good for a company that sells entertainment, where reputation is your brand.
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Heck, Hollywood may even make US government accounting look honest. 
Thus, I am always leery when Hollywood shares their results. A glut of streaming which tends to mean that shows never get a chance to have any legs. Think of some of the classic television shows that were given an opportunity to be renewed even without the best ratings versus so many (1 season and done) streaming shows as well as the glut of reality television. Why should I care about keeping up with the Kardashians. Actually why the "blank" would I care about individuals who contribute nothing to society and other than self-promotion seem to have no skills. 