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Post by brp on Mar 14, 2023 18:15:02 GMT -5
Yeah, this occurred to me earlier in the thread as the only reason I would do this. We'll be 82 in 2042. But, if I can get something back...
cheers.
Resale pricing is independent from direct. The real factor that is responsible for holding and or increasing resale prices is ROFR. And right now, Disney is taking nothing back. It is virtually non existent. So, that in itself negates any perceived benefit an extension “ may” provide. As long as the resale contract is worth more than whatever I have to pay to extend, I've made money (has to exceed fees, of course). So that's still a win.
Also, I don't think that today's events will have much bearing 19+ years from now. It will be completely new, unpredictable things. So, the risk is pretty much independent to what may be happening today. But it does exist.
Cheers.
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Post by applegrcoug on Mar 14, 2023 19:35:29 GMT -5
No ******* way. If I had nothing better to do I would run a time value of money calculation, but I am not that masochistic today.
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Post by henrycpa on Mar 15, 2023 15:01:43 GMT -5
Ok DVC Historians...question for you. What was the price of a Direct point from DVC at the time the Extension for OKW was offered. My memory tells me the original OKW points were $55 and that at time extension was offered Direct points were $85 per point and Disney priced the extension at $15 per point. Basically an all in discout of $15 per point over current direct pricing or a 17% discount.
So, if current pricing $220 then the all in offer would be roughly $180 and giving credit for original direct pricing of $85 would that mean they would price the Extension at $95 per point?
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Post by helenabear on Mar 17, 2023 14:01:03 GMT -5
Ok DVC Historians...question for you. What was the price of a Direct point from DVC at the time the Extension for OKW was offered. My memory tells me the original OKW points were $55 and that at time extension was offered Direct points were $85 per point and Disney priced the extension at $15 per point. Basically an all in discout of $15 per point over current direct pricing or a 17% discount. So, if current pricing $220 then the all in offer would be roughly $180 and giving credit for original direct pricing of $85 would that mean they would price the Extension at $95 per point? $15 at first. then it went up to $25 after a time. It never went higher than $25. All to say given the total flop of OKW they will never offer extensions again. If they resell it might be offered as a discount to current owners but no way are they messing with just extending the expiration date for all of a resort only to have a small percentage want to extend. |
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Post by BWV Dreamin on Mar 17, 2023 17:48:21 GMT -5
No ******* way. If I had nothing better to do I would run a time value of money calculation, but I am not that masochistic today. Please do, I love 💕 numbers! |
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Post by henrycpa on Mar 21, 2023 10:04:20 GMT -5
Ok DVC Historians...question for you. What was the price of a Direct point from DVC at the time the Extension for OKW was offered. My memory tells me the original OKW points were $55 and that at time extension was offered Direct points were $85 per point and Disney priced the extension at $15 per point. Basically an all in discout of $15 per point over current direct pricing or a 17% discount. So, if current pricing $220 then the all in offer would be roughly $180 and giving credit for original direct pricing of $85 would that mean they would price the Extension at $95 per point? $15 at first. then it went up to $25 after a time. It never went higher than $25. All to say given the total flop of OKW they will never offer extensions again. If they resell it might be offered as a discount to current owners but no way are they messing with just extending the expiration date for all of a resort only to have a small percentage want to extend. I did not mean the extension. I meant original point purchase. My memory says $55. So, at $55 then the $15 add on they are at $70 a point direct to get through 2057? That $15 would represent 27% of original pricing. But, I think the direct pricing at the time of the Extension was $85. so that $15 would have represented an 18% of current pricing. If we extend that to current pricing of lets say $210 then the extension should be priced at $37 per point...but I would bet it will be $40-$50. |
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Post by helenabear on Mar 21, 2023 10:59:20 GMT -5
$15 at first. then it went up to $25 after a time. It never went higher than $25. All to say given the total flop of OKW they will never offer extensions again. If they resell it might be offered as a discount to current owners but no way are they messing with just extending the expiration date for all of a resort only to have a small percentage want to extend. I did not mean the extension. I meant original point purchase. My memory says $55. So, at $55 then the $15 add on they are at $70 a point direct to get through 2057? That $15 would represent 27% of original pricing. But, I think the direct pricing at the time of the Extension was $85. so that $15 would have represented an 18% of current pricing. If we extend that to current pricing of lets say $210 then the extension should be priced at $37 per point...but I would bet it will be $40-$50. Oh sorry. It was $51 with reports of $48 presale. The extension was right after my son was born so it had to have been 2008 which per this prices were around $100 direct dvcinfo.com/dvc-information/financial/history-of-dvc-direct-sales-price/ |
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Post by jcinwonderland on Mar 21, 2023 22:16:11 GMT -5
I love my BWV, but absolutely not. That number would have to be significantly lower than $150.
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Post by FessParker1 on Mar 22, 2023 13:36:22 GMT -5
As helenabear said original price was $51 with a pre-sale price of $48. The resort sold out in fall of 1998 and price was $62.75 per point at the time. In 2007 an extention was offered at $25 per point with a $10 discount for anyone who extended by Feb 28th, 2008 bringing the price down to $15 per point or $1 per year for the extension. This was a one time offer and those who didn't extend couldn't in the future. Old Key West was selling for $92 per point direct when the offer was given. In Sept of 2007 all direct points were now increased to $96 per point with a 2057 end date. About 19.1% or 1.48 million points were extended. Rofr resales and foreclosures have produced about 600,000 extended direct sales making contracts with a 2057 end date at 27% of the resort.
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Post by Adelard of Bath on Mar 22, 2023 14:00:26 GMT -5
So if I was down there right now and chatted up the sales guy and said I wanted to buy 50 or 100 pts direct but they had to be OKW points, would they be 2057? And would they be $250 or some damn thing
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Post by PirateLinda on Mar 22, 2023 14:04:11 GMT -5
So if I was down there right now and chatted up the sales guy and said I wanted to buy 50 or 100 pts direct but they had to be OKW points, would they be 2057? And would they be $250 or some damn thing We bought OKW points last year direct. Our points expire in 2057. OKW through Disney is now $205 a point. |
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Post by mustinjourney on Mar 27, 2023 22:29:53 GMT -5
The obvious answer seems like “hell no!”
Yet people were buying BCV at over $160 per point for 20 years last year in 2022.
Of course, those 20 years are right now, whereas the OP hypothetical is for twenty years starting 19 years from now, so not complete apples to oranges.
But it does shed a light on the insanity of prices for the 2042 resorts.
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Post by mustinjourney on Mar 27, 2023 22:33:46 GMT -5
Paying $150 today for points to be used 20 years from now doesn’t make a lot of financial sense.
however, what if Disney allowed us to buy options today that would allow us to buy points in 2042 for $150 future dollars?
that would be an interesting scenario.
then you could have derivative markets in which the options traded like resale contracts.
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Post by FessParker1 on Mar 28, 2023 9:01:00 GMT -5
The obvious answer seems like “hell no!” Yet people were buying BCV at over $160 per point for 20 years last year in 2022. Of course, those 20 years are right now, whereas the OP hypothetical is for twenty years starting 19 years from now, so not complete apples to oranges. But it does shed a light on the insanity of prices for the 2042 resorts. Only because it's BC. We bought BRV @$90 a point last year. |
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Post by zafiro on Mar 28, 2023 9:11:29 GMT -5
$150 is a bit exorbitant for an aging resort (albeit with the best location IMO), so there would have to be some large-scale renovation plans with funding along with that offering. I might consider only if it were immediately more valuable on the resale market well above the $150 per point.
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