Realistic expectations for DVC Renting

Do you think the high room tax will affect demand though? 

If you rent points to stay at VGC what you pay the owner is the full cost. With VDH you’re then going to have to pay the per night tax when you arrive. That could deter some renters, and in some cases might come as an unwelcome shock to the renters if they didn’t know about it. 

I think that could lower the going rate per night. 

Yes, Im not purchasing any DVC with resale restrictions.  My direct points work at 7 months and there are not any “must own” villas like Club or Value AKV. Imo, I am not interested in villas that sleep 2, not even solo trips.  I almost started downsizing in fall 2019 but flinched and then Covid hit and I did not need to sell at a loss and rentals were still strong, plus I took a few extra trips myself, just to get out of the house.  In the past, I said DVC was trying to shake the tree to get as many large direct owners to sell so those points would go into the restricted bucket and now I see why. Riviera, VDH and Poly will all be restricted to resale purchases and the only way around that is to buy direct or rent from an owner with unrestricted points.  DVC is currently selling 2,000 points for $400,000+ with deed restrictions. 

Yes, as long as price per point+tax=less than rack +parking, the economics of renting VDH makes sense.  Rentals will definitely be shorter stays at DL. The ones deterred aren’t the target market.  And there are more than enough people in the target market that still want to save $100-$200 per night on their stay.   For them, its free money because they were going to spend it anyway.  I’ve had VGC renters from Australia that don’t blink at $25 per point. So just a different value perspective.  I can rent my direct purchased SSR points to VDH at $25 per point and offer to rebate the tax after checkout or offer to pay 1/2 the tax. Parking included is huge. Most hotels on that strip charge the tax and parking.  I stayed at Doubletree for 1 night before checking into VGC last trip, and I prefer to stay with Disney when possible. 

Not saying I will, but an example of what direct non-owners can do at 7 months to drive demand and ask higher rental rates and not purchase 1 VDH point. 

 I agree as well. We will have to see how this all plays out, but I agree that the TOT will have a negative impact on rental price per point.  As others have stated, Disneyland hotels are odd, with many paying a premium to stay in the “bubble.”  But are the same ones who want the “bubble” the ones who will book a Disneyland trip 7 months out?  Right now, I haven’t found a robust rental market for DL stays.  Most renters want WDW.  Although VDH will add lots more inventory, it may take a while before the demand catches up and that demand assumes that there are bargains to be had.

 Just looking a prices, a DLH room will rent for about $700 (with taxes) for a weekend in May.  For a standard view studio in May, that is 23 points per night, or just over $525/night at $20/point plus taxes.  Is that enough savings to make a non refundable reservation with a stranger?  Or are you going to book the Residence Inn for $300/night?

Edited to add: At $25/point plus taxes, it is a break even.  The only savings is parking. Which may matter if you are driving but not so much if you are flying.

Further edited to add:  Compare that with GCV, where a night in May runs $900 and 24 points are needed for a weekend stay at that time.  At $25/point, the GCV rental is $600.